Ceasefire in Ukraine: How Likely Is a Ceasefire in Ukraine?

Assessing the Chances of Peace and the Roadblocks to an Agreement

The Growing Calls for a Ceasefire: image /pizabay

Ceasefire in Ukraine, with the crisis in Ukraine now in its third year, there is rising international pressure to achieve a truce. European leaders, notably UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, have signalled readiness to send peacekeeping troops—but only if a durable truce is in place.

However, numerous issues hamper any prospective peace deal:
Neither Ukraine nor Russia has accomplished their strategic aims.
The US and NATO remain split on how to proceed.
Putin’s long-term objectives are still unknown.

So, how probable is a ceasefire in Ukraine? And if one does happen, will it hold?

Why Would Ukraine Agree to a Ceasefire?

Ukraine’s administration, under President Volodymyr Zelensky, has insisted that any ceasefire must safeguard Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. However, after years of hard combat, there are strains inside Ukraine to seek a brief respite to rebuild its troops.

Five Reasons Ukraine Might Consider a Ceasefire:

Military Fatigue: The battle has taxed Ukraine’s military, which is more reliant on Western funding.
Economic Crisis: The Ukrainian economy is suffering under wartime circumstances, with GDP decreasing.

Western Pressure: Some European governments, fearing long-term instability, are supporting discussions.
Humanitarian Concerns: Millions of Ukrainians remain displaced, and civilian fatalities continue to rise. Why Ukraine Might Reject a Ceasefire:

No Guarantees: Previous ceasefires (e.g., 2014, 2015 Minsk Agreements) collapsed owing to Russian breaches.

Territorial Losses: A ceasefire might entail recognising Russian sovereignty over seized territories in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.

Putin’s Intentions: Many Ukrainian politicians worry Russia would utilise a truce to reorganise and strike later. Verdict: Ukraine could contemplate a ceasefire—but only if Western security assurances are robust enough to deter future Russian assault.

Would Russia Accept a Ceasefire?

Vladimir Putin’s endgame remains unknown, but Russia has already accomplished some of its objectives:

Securing authority over four Ukrainian areas (partially or totally occupied).
Weakening Ukraine’s military and economy.
Expanding Russia’s power via energy control and geopolitical leverage.
However, despite these improvements, Russia is not in a position to claim outright triumph.

5 Reasons Russia Might Accept a Ceasefire:

Sanctions Pressure: Economic sanctions continue to hurt the Russian economy.
Manpower Issues: Russia has lost thousands of soldiers and has recruiting issues.
Avoiding a Costly Long War: Prolonged combat risks greater internal instability.
US & China Factor: Diplomatic pressure from important global actors (US, China, India) might force Russia into an accord.

Why Russia Might Reject a Ceasefire:

Putin’s Legacy: A truce that does not result in large territorial advances might be perceived as a failure domestically.

Strategic Expansion: If Russia feels it can win additional land, it will continue fighting.

No Trust in the West: Russian officials claim that NATO expansion and Western backing for Ukraine will continue regardless of a ceasefire.

Verdict: Russia may agree to a ceasefire under duress, but only if it secures long-term control of seized regions—something Ukraine would undoubtedly refuse.

The Role of the US and NATO: Peacekeepers or Military Backers?

The US and NATO have a critical role in deciding if a truce is achievable.

The US Stance (Trump’s Administration)

No US forces in Ukraine.
Encourages a diplomatic settlement yet wants to avoid direct engagement.
Supports a ceasefire if it stops further escalation with Russia.

The NATO Position

Divided: Some European countries (France, Germany) want discussions, while Poland and the Baltic states warn that Russia cannot be trusted.
Peacekeeping Discussions: NATO is contemplating sending peacekeepers—but only if a truce is in place.
Uncertainty About Military Aid: Some NATO members want to limit down military delivery to facilitate discussions, while others feel Ukraine must be equipped until victory is secured. Verdict: A ceasefire will not work unless NATO and the US give concrete security assurances for Ukraine.

What Would a Ceasefire Look Like?

If both parties agree to a ceasefire, it will typically involve:

Demarcation Lines: A temporary boundary between Ukrainian and Russian-controlled regions.
Peacekeepers: NATO or UN forces monitoring ceasefire breaches.
Security Agreements: Western countries guaranteeing Ukraine’s protection without full NATO membership.
Economic Conditions: Possible sanctions relaxation for Russia in return for de-escalation.

Biggest Risks:

A frozen war when combat persists notwithstanding the truce.
Russia utilising the delay to rearm and launch another assault later.
Ukraine being coerced into a poor agreement that leaves them vulnerable. Verdict: A ceasefire can only succeed if it includes robust enforcement measures and unambiguous Western security pledges.

What Happens Next?

Key Questions That Will Decide a Ceasefire:
Will Ukraine accept a settlement that implies territorial losses?
Can NATO deliver security assurances without direct military intervention?
Will Russia actually honour a ceasefire or utilise it to regroup?

The Risk: If a truce fails to avoid further battle, Europe and NATO might face an even worse war down the road.

Is a Ceasefire Likely?

A ceasefire may be conceivable, but sustainable peace remains dubious.

Ukraine will only agree if it assures long-term security. Russia will press for territorial gains before accepting any deal. The US and NATO must explain their military obligations to avert further escalation.

What do you think? Should Ukraine accept a ceasefire now, or continue fighting for a total victory? Let us know in the comments!